SIP vs lump sum on the NIFTY 50: what the history shows
Facts, not advice. Data and method for research and education; not investment advice or a recommendation about any security.
A monthly SIP of ₹10,000 on the NIFTY 50 against putting the same total in as a lump sum on the SIP's first day, on the index's own price history from 1 Nov 2016 to 29 Oct 2026, with the charges of purchasing units.
The latest 10 years: 1 Nov 2016 to 29 Oct 2026
The SIP bought on the first trading day of each of 120 months. The lump sum is the SIP's whole total, ₹12,00,000, put in on 1 Nov 2016.
- ₹19,04,777Monthly SIP: value at the end₹12,00,000 put in
- ₹31,90,080Lump sum: value at the end₹12,00,000 put in
- +8.9%Monthly SIP: annual returnXIRR
- +10.3%Lump sum: annual returnXIRR
| Monthly SIP | Lump sum | |
|---|---|---|
| Money put in | ₹12,00,000 | ₹12,00,000 |
| Value at the end | ₹19,04,777 | ₹31,90,080 |
| Gain | ₹7,04,777 | ₹19,90,080 |
| Annual return (XIRR) | +8.9% | +10.3% |
| Deepest fall of the index's price (the same for both) | −38.4% | −38.4% |
| Charges paid | ₹225 | ₹225 |
From every start month
The same comparison for every start month the history allows: the SIP runs for the horizon, and the lump sum is that SIP's total put in on its first day. 'Ahead' counts the windows in which one ended with the higher value. Windows that start a month apart overlap almost entirely, so they are not independent results.
SIP aheadLump sum aheadLevel
- 3 years0840
- 5 years0600
| Horizon | Windows | SIP ahead | Lump ahead | SIP median | Lump median | SIP lowest | Lump lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | 84 | 0 | 84 | +13.3% | +13.3% | −16.5% | −3.7% |
| 5 years | 60 | 0 | 60 | +14.4% | +13.3% | +2.9% | +5.0% |
Over 3-year horizons the lump sum ended ahead in 84 of 84 windows and the SIP in 0. Over 5-year horizons the lump sum ended ahead in 60 of 60 windows and the SIP in 0.
How the comparison was run
- Data: the NIFTY 50's daily closes from exchange data, as the app holds them. The index is a price index, so dividends are not included.
- Each instalment of ₹10,000 is invested at that day's close in whole units, each worth a hundredth of the index level; what a whole unit can't use waits for the next instalment. The lump sum is invested the same way on its day.
- Charges are those of purchasing exchange-traded fund units in India: no STT on units, exchange and SEBI fees with GST, and stamp duty on the purchase. Brokerage is set to zero, since it differs by broker. No sale is made, so no charges on a sale and no tax are counted.
- The annual return is the XIRR of the dated payments in and the value at the end. The deepest fall is the largest drop of the units' price from a high (the pot's value with the instalments taken out), so it is the same number for the SIP and the lump sum: both own the same units through the same prices. What differs is how much money was in the pot when the fall came, which the SIP's instalments built up over the years.
- Charges are a share of each purchase (no flat fee, brokerage set to zero), so the same total put in costs the same whether it goes in at once or in instalments.
Limits
- The index can't be bought as such: this models units that follow it exactly, with no fund expense ratio and no tracking difference.
- The history is 10 years at most and one market; a different period or market can give another answer. The windows overlap, so the counts above are not a probability of anything.
- A lump sum is invested for longer than the SIP's average rupee, so its result depends on whether prices rose over the period; the tables record what happened in this history, not what happens next.
- Nothing here is a suggestion to start, change or stop a SIP.
Test a SIP on any Indian stock or ETF with the same engine, or read the company pages.