StratLab

36.4 points behind buy and hold after costs; 3 of 4 checks run · 2 passed.

20/50 EMA cross · 12 large European companies

It returned +28.4% in total over the test, after costs; buying and holding over the same period returned +64.7%, 36.3 points more. The checks test whether the result holds up (on the unseen years, nearby settings and shuffled trades); they don't compare it with buying and holding. It kept making money on the years it wasn't tuned on (+15.5%). The nearby-settings check wasn't run (it isn't run on a group of stocks), so this doesn't show whether the result depends on the exact settings. With the trades in a worse order, the worst fall was much deeper. 144 trades, enough to judge.

The rules: Enters when the 20-day exponential average crosses above the 50-day one; leaves when it crosses back below.

StratLab ran these rules through its own backtest on every stock in the group, after costs, and through four checks: unseen years, nearby settings, a bad-luck drawdown and enough trades. The page shows the return beside buy and hold and the result of each check. A verdict describes the past, not what comes next, and nothing here is investment advice.

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